If you’re thinking of getting copies of my books, it couldn’t be easier. I’ve got you covered, even for autographed books!
I’ve been recommending this essay for years to every writer I know. And it’s free to read online…
I compiled a list of fun facts about this brilliant mathematician after reading two biographies. The oddest little things stayed with me, and here they are…
“PUBLICK NOTICE
The Obfervation of Christmas having been deemed A Sacrilege, the exchanging of Gifts and Greetings, Dreffing in Fine Clothing, Feafting and similar Satanical Practices are hereby FORBIDDEN With the Offender liable to a fine of Five Shillings.”
Pursuant to my proposal yesterday, here’s a public notice from 1659 Boston, when the Puritans banned the holiday.
Source:
http://whofortedblog.com/2011/12/16/history-repeating-war-christmas/
Image of goblet by @derickray via Unsplash
Happy Thanksgiving!
Think we can get some momentum behind the idea of banning Christmas? Nearly every blogger I’ve read this week has said that Thanksgiving is their favorite holiday. I know it’s mine. It’s probably yours, too. So how about it? No Christmas this year. Let’s just have two Thanksgivings and be done with it. Santa can put in an appearance at the Thanksgiving Parade, but he can’t really arrive. I’m into it.
Above: Some photos from the Thanksgiving Parade in our little mountain town in NC.
Turkey & Bookstores
I haven’t had one of these weekends in…ever.
Friday Denise is doing a book signing 12-4 pm at the Books-A-Million in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, the only bookstore in the city that is the setting for her book, The Girls of Atomic City. I’m tagging along. It’s the first time either of us has ever signed on Black Friday. I’m not sure what to expect. On a day overrun with “doorbuster” sales, are people really going to visit a bookstore? We’ll see.
Saturday afternoon we’re both volunteering to work 3-5 pm at Malaprop’s (see photos above), our local store here in town, as part of a nationwide event called Indies First, first promoted by author Sherman Alexie.
Basically, a bunch of writers all around the USA (and several nations overseas) are hand-selling at their favorite indie bookstores for the day. This map gives you an idea which authors are volunteering. Denise describes the event in a column appearing today in the Huffington Post.
Again: Not sure what to expect. In the past, we’ve hawked our history titles in gift shops at historic sites around the country. Those signings always went well, but convincing someone face-to-face why they should buy your books is not something I enjoy doing. That’s why Malaprop’s asked us to pick a handful of other authors’ books to pitch, so we’re trying that. I have no idea how I’ll perform in that situation.
One thing I’ve learned is to always bring a notebook to book signings and plop it right there on the table next to you. That way, people can sign up for your mailing list on the spot. Some people sign up even if they don’t buy your book, intending to buy it online later. Our email list has grown to more than 2,500 names since we started doing that. We only mail out one or two blasts a year, but it’s been totally worth it.
If I don’t talk to you, have a great Thanksgiving.
Cannae: The Biggest “Oh-Sh*t!” Moment in History
Earlier this year, HarperOne published Blind Spot: Why We Fail to See the Solution Right in Front of Us, a book about I co-authored with Gordon Rugg, a British scientist who works in the field of human error. For lack of a better term, Rugg is an expert on human expertise, particularly what happens when those experts screw up.
I have planned a couple of posts with Rugg that I think you’ll enjoy. The first is about an event that occurred during the Second Punic Wars. Deep in the heart of southern Italy, the great Carthaginian general Hannibal slaughtered about 60,000 Roman soldiers in a single day.
It’s considered the greatest tactical military maneuver ever, and the biggest defeat the Romans ever faced. I asked Dr. Rugg to explain why he calls this event the biggest “oh-shit” moment in history, and why it’s such a major touchstone in our book.
Dr. Rugg?
Cannae and the candle
The Victorian physicist Michael Faraday famously used an ordinary candle to demonstrate some of the key principles of chemistry and physics. It was a brilliant example because of its simplicity and purity. A single candle was all he needed to demonstrate those key principles, and to demonstrate how those key principles were reflected in everyday life.
Cannae does for human error what the candle did for chemistry and physics. It illustrates a key point with elegant simplicity. Cannae is one of the few battles that unfolded exactly as one commander intended. With most battles, there are key points where a single chance event could have changed the outcome. That wasn’t the case at Cannae. What happened on that day in 216 BC was as inevitable and inescapable as the events in a Greek tragedy.
And, like a Greek tragedy, Cannae was inexorable, brutal and bloody in its outcome. It was a devastating demonstration of how one common human error can lead to tens of thousands of deaths. That’s how many Romans were killed in a single day at Cannae.
The Roman commander saw events unfolding just the way he expected, with his large army pushing back the battle line of Hannibal’s much smaller army into a deep arc. That was the shape of a battle line that was just about to break, which is what the Romans wanted; a broken battle line could then be mopped up in detail.
What the Roman commander hadn’t spotted was that the shape of the two armies was also the shape of one army surrounded on three sides by the other army.
The Romans realised their mistake when Hannibal’s cavalry slammed into the back of the Roman line, closing the trap. Some Romans managed to fight their way out while the trap was closing. After the trap had closed, the rest were slaughtered to the last man.
The Roman commander’s error is known as confirmation bias. You see the evidence that fits with what you want to see; you don’t see that the same evidence also fits equally well with a completely different explanation.
I care about confirmation bias because it’s one of the commonest mistakes in research. It’s at the heart of the widespread popular misconception that scientists set out to prove that their theories are right. Trying to prove that your theory is right is a really stupid idea. You can’t be right all the time. Nobody is. Experts actually make more mistakes than novices, because the experts are testing out possible explanations all the time. That’s how the fictional medic Dr. Gregory House works. Nobody remembers the half-dozen possible diagnoses that he tries and abandons before he finds the correct diagnosis that everybody does remember. That’s how good science operates. You test ideas, and see which ones are the best fit for what you’re seeing. It’s about how well the different possibilities match the evidence, not about how good you are at guessing.
A common pattern in bad research is that the researcher starts off with a pet theory, then does a study that turns up evidence that’s consistent with their pet theory, and decides that this is evidence of their theory being right. This one simple type of mistake has squandered huge amounts of time, effort and money, and has led to untold needless human tragedy. It doesn’t just affect the studies themselves. Some bad studies manage to become orthodoxy, leading to wasted opportunities, and making later researchers spend years unpicking the mess before they can start rebuilding on sound foundations.
At Cannae, Hannibal defeated the Romans by using their confirmation bias against them. The number of Romans killed in that one battle was far greater than the number of dead at Gettysburg, or any other battle in the American Civil War; it was greater than the number of American dead in the entire Vietnam War. Sixty thousand dead, in one day.
But that’s probably just a drop in the ocean compared to the number of unnecessary deaths caused by the right answers being missed through confirmation bias, not just by researchers, but by anyone who looks at the evidence before making a decision, and sees only the shape that they want to see in that evidence.
That’s why Cannae was such an important story within Blind Spot. That’s why we’re testing different ways of showing evidence and looking at evidence, in the hope that some of those ways might prevent at least some deaths or loss or suffering. As the examples in Blind Spot show, it’s a realistic possibility. Researchers such as Gerd Gigerenzer have already saved lives by helping emergency doctors to avoid faulty judgments in the emergency wards. There’s real hope, and that’s worth a lot.
Image: Wikipedia
Free Writing Tracker
Back in July I talked about how I track my writing progress using a handwritten ledger. It’s served me pretty well but on January 1 I’ll be switching to a digital system.
I have never learned how to create my own spreadsheets, but thankfully a writer friend and colleague, W. Bradford Swift, has done the heavy lifting already. His writing tracker template lets you input the number of words written daily, and will also calculate your hourly output, if you care about such details. When you get to the bottom of Swift’s existing spreadsheet, you can just cut-and-paste the cells to extend the sheet. You can download the writing tracker free at Swift’s website. If you’re inclined to thank him, check out his sci-fi/fantasy books. If you’re looking for a way into his fiction, check out his short story, "Hunt Along the Iron River," which I enjoyed.
In other news:
I recently completed a good draft of my historical fantasy WIP, which I’m cryptically calling TIMoNY for the moment, and am taking some time off to catch up on the blog and write some other material. While we’re on the subject of tracking your writing progress, I can say that it took me about 60 days to write the first draft, 50 days to do the second draft, 20 to do the third. I’m happy with the results, but that’s not the same as saying I’m done, or even satisfied. I’m asking Denise to read it first, and I’ll revise with her input in mind. I already have a batch of changes I’d like to make, but I need the distance right now. So I’m working on some revisions to another book in the meantime.
Denise writes:
It’s gift-giving-buying season once again. I am, as always, working with my fantabulous independent bookstore Malaprop’s to offer personalized, autographed copies of The Girls of Atomic City and other titles. Signed books always make great gifts and autographing eReaders simply hasn’t taken off yet. I work with Malaprop’s year round, but during the holidays I get lots of questions about wrapping and shipping and so forth.
Here’s the skinny:
The easiest way to get an autographed book is to call Malaprop’s directly at 1-800-441-9829 or 828-254-6734. The store is chock full of helpful, cheerful folks. Once one of these charmers answers the phone, just tell them…
That’s it! Malaprop’s will get me in to sign and will ship your book out to you or to the person of your choice, autographed and ready to go.
But what about gift wrapping?
Yes indeed, they gift wrap. I told you they were wonderful. So, you can have that autographed book gift-wrapped AND have a gift card slapped on it. That package of holiday reading cheer will be shipped wherever you want and will arrive ready to be shoved under a tree, stuck in a (larger than usual) stocking, placed next to the menorah, or swapped at an office party.
Can I order online?
Technically, yes, but calling is much more efficient and, in the long run, will take up much less of your time.
Which books of yours can I order?
Any of them, really.
The Girls of Atomic City: The Untold Story of the Women Who Helped Win World War II
Signing Their Rights Away: The Fame and Misfortune of the Men Who Signed the Constitution
Stuff Every American Should Know
The Money Book for Freelancers, Part-Timers, and the Self-Employed
Happy shopping, and thanks for supporting a local independent bookstore!
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